It is true that the proportion of PCTs filed by the UK has fallen, but this is perhaps not surprising as countries continue to join the system. In fact, the number of UK-PCT filings rose from 2257 to 4207 in this period. Source: WIPO
The estimated number of UK-PCT filings for 2005 is 5115, which is the 6th highest out of 128 members.
The other countries in the study increased their proportion of PCTs filed. If you follow the lines on the graph the lines of our competitors go upwards, and our line goes downwards.
It helps to use your finger do this check.
Yes, the 2005 estimate for UK PCT filings is 5115. This compares favourably with the 2001 figure of 5482.
No they didnt! well not all of them anyway! Look at page 6 of PCT yearly reports
JP 1991=7.9% 1999=10.3% GB 1991=9.9% 1999=5.5% US 1991=43.0% 1999=40.9% DE 1991=12.1 1999=13.6% FR 1991=5.0 1999=4.7%
So using my finger as suggested I find that JP and DE go up, GB, US and FR go down.
According to my basic maths, it is impossible for everyone to increase their proportion as the total of these cannot exceed 100%. Thus as new countries join and start using the PCT system, existing countries' proportional share must reduce in year-on-year growth (compared to if there were no new users). There must also be a saturation limit for the number of PCT filings possible per country, which is likely to be the more developed countries. This may explain the UK's recent stagnation, although the 2005/6 figures seem to be rising again.
The problem with statistics is that you can make them show anything you want if you are selective enough of your data. Consider the situation where UK has number of filings eg 5000 one year rising to 5010 in the next, but developing country enters system and files 10 one year and 20 the next. UK proportion falls slightly 5000/5010 to 5010/5030, despite the same increase in numbers as the developing country, but developing country has 100% increase in proportion. This shows that using statistics in this way can be misleading.
Don’t complain to me about the figures for this graph. Complain to the British Library’s Documentation Manager. He qualifies these findings by saying they show the UK’s “appalling decline”.
Sorry, but I’ll stick with the British Library’s figures.
Well let's hope he does an update soon and includes the number of filings rather than relying on a percentage which could be considered misleading as the number of states signed up to the PCT grows. Maybe he'll call his report 'An end to the UK decline?' ;-)
Sorry but I’m beginning to lose track of your argument. What has caused our “appalling decline” again? Is it: the Iraq war, 9/11, the “compensation culture”, everyone else doing better than us, a historical anomaly caused by the Gregorian calendar, the decline of manufacturing (in the UK), lack of investment, little brown mice or lack of respect and the general decline of Christian values?
Or is it spittle-flecked fat-cat greed freaks stealing innovations from inventors?
It, as you say, our appalling decline has been caused by uptake of the PCT system by “other” nations then every country in the study would be equally affected.
7 Comments:
It is true that the proportion of PCTs filed by the UK has fallen, but this is perhaps not surprising as countries continue to join the system. In fact, the number of UK-PCT filings rose from 2257 to 4207 in this period.
Source: WIPO
The estimated number of UK-PCT filings for 2005 is 5115, which is the 6th highest out of 128 members.
Perhaps not so bad after all!
The other countries in the study increased their proportion of PCTs filed. If you follow the lines on the graph the lines of our competitors go upwards, and our line goes downwards.
It helps to use your finger do this check.
Yes, the 2005 estimate for UK PCT filings is 5115. This compares favourably with the 2001 figure of 5482.
Oh…hang on…
PS your link doesn’t work
Try this one:
WIPO Top countries/region of origin using PCT
No they didnt! well not all of them anyway!
Look at page 6 of PCT yearly reports
JP 1991=7.9% 1999=10.3%
GB 1991=9.9% 1999=5.5%
US 1991=43.0% 1999=40.9%
DE 1991=12.1 1999=13.6%
FR 1991=5.0 1999=4.7%
So using my finger as suggested I find that JP and DE go up, GB, US and FR go down.
According to my basic maths, it is impossible for everyone to increase their proportion as the total of these cannot exceed 100%. Thus as new countries join and start using the PCT system, existing countries' proportional share must reduce in year-on-year growth (compared to if there were no new users). There must also be a saturation limit for the number of PCT filings possible per country, which is likely to be the more developed countries. This may explain the UK's recent stagnation, although the 2005/6 figures seem to be rising again.
The problem with statistics is that you can make them show anything you want if you are selective enough of your data. Consider the situation where UK has number of filings eg 5000 one year rising to 5010 in the next, but developing country enters system and files 10 one year and 20 the next. UK proportion falls slightly 5000/5010 to 5010/5030, despite the same increase in numbers as the developing country, but developing country has 100% increase in proportion. This shows that using statistics in this way can be misleading.
BV
PS WIPO's moved your link too!
Don’t complain to me about the figures for this graph. Complain to the British Library’s Documentation Manager. He qualifies these findings by saying they show the UK’s “appalling decline”.
Sorry, but I’ll stick with the British Library’s figures.
Well let's hope he does an update soon and includes the number of filings rather than relying on a percentage which could be considered misleading as the number of states signed up to the PCT grows. Maybe he'll call his report 'An end to the UK decline?'
;-)
BV
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Sorry but I’m beginning to lose track of your argument. What has caused our “appalling decline” again? Is it: the Iraq war, 9/11, the “compensation culture”, everyone else doing better than us, a historical anomaly caused by the Gregorian calendar, the decline of manufacturing (in the UK), lack of investment, little brown mice or lack of respect and the general decline of Christian values?
Or is it spittle-flecked fat-cat greed freaks stealing innovations from inventors?
It, as you say, our appalling decline has been caused by uptake of the PCT system by “other” nations then every country in the study would be equally affected.
Hmmm…this doesn’t seem to be the case.
Are we looking at the same graph?
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